The construction market moves fast. Material prices shift, currencies fluctuate, and project costs can change overnight.
To help our clients and partners stay ahead of the curve, we’re proud to introduce Volume 1 of The Stonehaven Cost Index a concise, data-led snapshot of the market’s most influential movements.
This Week's Market Movers
Every week, our cost management and data intelligence teams will analyse material trends, foreign exchange rates, and inflation drivers that shape project budgets across the GCC. The result is a clear, actionable index that translates market volatility into insight, helping developers, contractors, and consultants make informed cost decisions.
WoW % change (Week on Week Change)
*Rates as of 31st October 2025
Material Movement This Week
The chart below illustrates week-on-week changes in key construction materials, showing how prices fluctuate across global exchanges and their impact on regional cost trends. It highlights market movement at a glance on which materials are rising, which are stabilising, and which are easing. This will help project teams visualise short-term pricing dynamics that influence tendering, procurement, and overall construction budgets.
*Rates as of 31st October 2025
Material of the Week
*Rates as of 31st October 2025
Supply - Demand Drivers
01. Global Supply–Demand Overview
Primary use: Around 45 % of copper demand originates from construction and building services, mainly in wiring, busbars, switchgear, HVAC, and plumbing.
Global Mine Supply:
- Chile and Peru (jointly ≈ 35 % of global output) have faced production disruptions due to community protests, weather events, and grade declines.
- New supply from the DRC and Mongolia offers only partial relief.
- Concentrate supply tightness has lowered smelter treatment charges, indicating a deficit market in refined copper.
02. Demand Drivers in Construction
Electrical Infrastructure:
- Copper remains the preferred conductor for high-reliability power, fire alarm, and data systems.
- The ongoing electrification of buildings, energy-efficient HVAC, and smart controls have increased copper intensity per m² of built area.
Building Services:
- Used in LV panels, earthing systems, bus ducts, plumbing (in some premium projects), and condenser coils for chillers and VRF systems.
Green Construction Trend:
- “Low-carbon building” initiatives in Europe and the GCC are shifting focus to energy-efficient materials indirectly increasing copper usage in smart metering, renewable integration, and electrical infrastructure.
03. Middle East Context
Steady Construction Activity:
- GCC countries (particularly UAE, KSA, and Qatar) maintain strong pipelines of hospitality, infrastructure, and mixed-use developments, all MEP-intensive.
- Copper’s share in project costs is concentrated in electrical and mechanical packages, which together form 25-35 % of total construction cost.
Regional Supply Chain:
- The region imports over 90% of its copper-based products (wires, busbars, pipes) from India, China, and Europe.
- Recent freight escalation (10 - 15 %), coupled with port congestion, has pushed landed copper cable prices up AED 1,800–2,200 / t over Q3–Q4 2025.
Local Manufacturers:
- UAE and KSA cable producers (e.g., Ducab, Riyadh Cables) hedge against LME volatility but still pass on LME surcharges monthly to clients — meaning construction rates closely track LME trends.
04. Supply Risks & Price Drivers
- South American mine disruptions : Tightens concentrate supply, supports higher LME prices.
- Global decarbonisation (renewables, EVs): Structural long-term demand growth (+2 Mt by 2030)
- Energy cost volatility : Raises smelting and refining costs, especially in China/EU
- Freight inflation: Adds 2 - 4 % to landed cost in GCC imports
- FX movement (USD strength): Slightly offsets local AED/SAR impact due to USD peg, but affects regional procurement from Euro/Asian suppliers.
Stonehaven Cost Index (SCI)
- Index baseline (01 September 2025) = 100
- Current SCI: 102.58 (up from 102.24 last week)
Driver Note
The SCI posted a +0.34% week-on-week gain, reflecting steady upward momentum in construction input costs. Steel, copper, and zinc led the increase, supported by firm global demand and limited supply. Aluminium and lead also edged higher, while bitumen, nickel, and titanium softened slightly, tempering overall escalation. Labour and plant costs remained broadly stable, underpinned by steady diesel prices and consistent workforce availability. Overall, the index signals continued mild inflationary pressure on project costs entering November 2025.
Currency & Inflation Lens
*Rates as of 31st October 2025
*Rates as of 31st October 2025
Stonehaven Analysis
- The AED and SAR strengthened against most major currencies this week — notably the Euro, Pound, Yen, Rupee, and Singapore Dollar - while showing marginal weakness versus the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and Australian Dollar (AUD).
- This mixed performance carries direct implications for procurement, cash flow, and material logistics across the regional construction supply chain.
Impact on Construction Costs
- Imported Materials: Slight reduction in landed cost of European façade systems, UK finishes, and Japanese MEP equipment. Improves overall purchasing power for imported materials.
- Local Manufacturing Inputs: Domestic suppliers maintain price stability, supporting predictable procurement schedules.
- Chinese Imports: Negligible cost rise on China-sourced tiles, lighting, and aluminium extrusions; supply chain remains competitive.
- Labour Markets: Reduces remittance value for expatriate workers; may pressure labour morale and turnover but slightly eases contractors’ payroll outflow in AED terms.
- Developer & Client Perspective: Supports cost certainty and reduces escalation risk in ongoing tender evaluations.
- Logistics & Freight: Freight charges are typically USD-based. Therefore; Logistics cost volatility now mainly driven by capacity and fuel price, not currency movement.
Quote of the Week
Conclusion
The strengthening AED and SAR has a favourable influence on the wider Middle East construction sector, easing import cost pressures and supporting cost stability across ongoing projects. While commodity inflation persists globally, currency alignment with the USD and improved exchange performance against key supplier currencies collectively enhance project financial resilience through the close of 2025.
Market Forecast & Watchlist
Copper (LME/COMEX): ▲ Forecast – Upward bias
Global supply remains constrained, while GCC demand continues to strengthen with ongoing EV-infrastructure, smart-grid, and mixed-use development projects. Expect copper prices to remain firm with moderate upside momentum into next week.
Hot Rolled Coil (HRC): ▲ Forecast – Upward bias
Regional steel fabrication demand is rising as several industrial and logistics projects enter active construction phases. With mills operating near capacity, HRC prices are expected to firm further as Gulf lead-times extend.
Aluminium (LME/SHFE): Forecast – Stable to Slightly Positive
Limited Chinese smelting capacity and sustained Middle East façade activity suggest a steady pricing outlook. Marginal premium gains possible due to freight and energy costs.
Iron Ore (SGX/DCE): ▼ Forecast – Downward bias
Cooling Chinese construction demand and steady port inventories may apply mild downward pressure on ore prices, though Gulf steel producers’ procurement remains stable.
Bitumen (SHFE): Forecast – Stable
Linked closely to crude oil trends. With Brent hovering near USD 87/bbl, bitumen prices expected to remain range-bound.
Stonehaven Forecast Summary
Outlook: Upward pressure likely on Copper and HRC, while Aluminium stays steady. Iron Ore and Bitumen may show short-term stabilisation or minor softening.
SCI Bias: Mildly bullish, non-ferrous metals to continue supporting index growth, offset partly by softening in ore and petrochemical materials.
Closing Notes
The GCC construction market remains fundamentally resilient despite global metal-price volatility.
Ongoing infrastructure, logistics, and renewable-energy investments continue to sustain regional demand for steel, copper, and aluminium products.
While supply chain pressures are easing, logistics costs, shipping delays, and sustainability-linked material premiums will remain key considerations.
Talk To Our Team
The market’s changing every week, so are your budgets keeping up? Our cost management specialists can help you benchmark, forecast, and protect your project margins using real data from the Stonehaven Cost Index.
