2 August 2026
This Week’s Cost Intelligence
Issue 22 breaks the run of shared direction. The UAE index rose 0.66% to 118.91, its first gain in six weeks, and sits 18.91% above baseline. KSA edged the other way, down 0.16% to 109.98, still 9.98% above baseline. They share the same global materials basket, which softened for both, so the difference is local. The UAE was lifted by its plant and labour side, mainly the August diesel reset, while KSA stayed flat to lower.
The metals were two-way. Copper led the risers at 2.79% and bitumen led the fallers at 4.16%. Seven of the twelve lines were down, but those two large moves worked against each other, so the basket ended only modestly softer.
Freight and currency moved in opposite directions for the buyer. Freight fell across the board, dry bulk correcting hard and containers easing too, which cuts the cost of shipped materials. Currency went the other way: the Dirham and Riyal eased against every tracked line, the Japanese Yen most at 3.79%, so foreign currency imports cost a little more, though the pegged US Dollar leaves most procurement untouched.
The verdict: A supportive week for buyers overall, helped by cheaper freight and the peg, with the softer Dirham a small and manageable headwind. Lock in copper-heavy MEP and steel packages while metals are calm, and price freight-sensitive imports on landed cost while shipping rates are low.
STONEHAVEN COST INDEX HEADLINE KPIS
SCI Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026
Cost Index 0.00 As of 02 August 2026
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
SCI VS BASELINE — 41-WEEK TREND
Stonehaven Cost Index, weekly. Baseline 01 Sep 2025 = 100.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
SCI WEEK-ON-WEEK % CHANGE
Weekly movement of the Stonehaven Cost Index — momentum over the last 41 readings.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
SCI SUB-INDEX TRENDS
Click a tab to view that index — Materials, Labour or Plant.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
THIS CYCLE'S DRIVER NOTE
Commercial commentary on the cycle's price action from Stonehaven's Managing Director.
The UAE SCI rose to 118.91 on the August diesel reset that took plant to 136.61, while KSA SCI eased to 109.98 as the Plant Index remained steady. Same global basket, different local story.
With materials flat and freight cheaper in both markets, the pressure has shifted to labour and energy. That is the story to watch, not the weekly index move.
For buyers on either side of the border, stay selective: lock copper and steel scopes while metals are calm, and take the freight relief on landed cost.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
MATERIAL MOVEMENT THIS WEEK
Spot prices and % change across weekly, monthly, year-to-date and year-on-year windows. Applies to both UAE and KSA editions.
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Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
To view the price fluctuations in detail, please download our latest dataset below.
CUMULATIVE % CHANGE VS BASELINE BY MATERIAL
How far each tracked input has moved since 01 Sep 2025 = 100. Cement and ReadyMix are local series; all other materials are global.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
MARKET MATERIAL WATCHLIST
Three materials to monitor closely over the coming week.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
Copper – Forward Cover (▲)
Forecast: Copper led the basket, up 2.79% to USD 14.38/kg and 46.88% higher year-on-year, the strongest line in the index at 44.56% above baseline. With GCC electrification and data centre demand behind it, this is structural momentum, not a top.
Action: secure forward cover now on MEP, busbar and switchgear scopes; do not wait for a pull-back.
Steel-Rebar – Softer Entry (▼)
Forecast: Rebar eased 2.24% to USD 442.30/t but holds 2.04% year-to-date and sits flat year-on-year. At 3.47% above baseline the line is well behaved, a soft entry rather than a warning.
Action: use the dip to lock rates on confirmed structural programmes now.
Bitumen – Correcting (▼)
Forecast: Bitumen was the steepest faller, down 4.16% to USD 585.79/t, but off a stretched level, still 37.82% year-to-date and 17.87% above baseline. Peak summer paving demand reads this as relief, not reversal.
Action: hold for re-entry on roads and infrastructure; do not chase the fall until the summer premium confirms.
THIS WEEK'S MARKET MOVERS — WOW %
Material-by-material price movement over the week ending 02 August 2026. Applies to both UAE and KSA editions.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
AVERAGE SCI FLUCTUATION
VS MATERIAL PRICES
Click a tab to switch material — Oil (Brent), Steel-rebar or Aluminium. Bars show monthly average material price (left axis); line shows Avg. SCI (right axis).
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
Driver of the Cycle – Labour Overtakes Materials as the Main Cost Pressure
With material prices easing this cycle and the UAE increase mainly driven by the August diesel reset, the focus is now shifting to labour.
The wider labour market remains strong. A large and mobile workforce keeps general trade labour relatively affordable and easy to mobilise. However, pressure is growing for skilled workers. In KSA, major giga-projects are increasing demand for MEP, fit-out and finishing trades faster than the market can replace them. This is pushing up rates for skilled workers, extending lead times and increasing the risk of project delays when key trades are not secured early.
The pressure is also coming from the costs around labour, not just basic wages. Saudisation and Emiratisation requirements, GOSI, Iqama and permit fees, as well as housing and transport costs, are increasing the overall cost of employing workers.
For cost plans, this means labour should be priced on an all-in basis, including statutory and welfare costs. Nationalisation allowances should also be checked against the latest requirements rather than relying on older figures. For specialist trades, early booking is becoming increasingly important.
As material prices cool, labour is becoming a key factor in determining whether GCC construction cost plans remain on budget.
CURRENCY & INFLATION LENS
AED VS KEY TRADING CURRENCIES
UAE Dirham vs key trading currencies, weekly movement and trailing averages.
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Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026
AED FX EXPOSURE — WOW % CHANGE
Weekly currency moves against AED across the eight tracked import-pricing pairs.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026
SAR VS KEY TRADING CURRENCIES
Saudi Riyal vs key trading currencies, weekly movement and trailing averages.
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Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026
SAR FX EXPOSURE — WOW % CHANGE
Weekly currency moves against SAR across the eight tracked import-pricing pairs.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026
Stonehaven analysis
The UAE Dirham and Saudi Riyal remained stable against the US dollar, with their familiar pegs keeping the core GCC procurement costs steady.
The euro and sterling strengthened modestly, making some European and UK-sourced materials and specialist equipment slightly dearer. The Chinese yuan remained stable at 0.544 AED / 0.555 SAR, supporting predictable costs for China-sourced steel, rebar, PVC and finishes.
Overall, currency movements remain limited. Buyers can continue to favour dollar- and local-currency-priced contracts, while monitoring European and Japanese supply for further currency movements.
GLOBAL INPUTS & FREIGHT BENCHMARKS
Logistics & freight — construction cost multipliers.
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Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026 · *Data as of 02 August 2026
FREIGHT & SHIPPING INDICES
Click a tab to view that index — Baltic Dry, Capesize, Panamax or Container. Monthly readings.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
Stonehaven Procurement Strategy Index (SPSI)
The SPSI scores procurement risk in one number, built from three inputs:
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Market Volatility (MVEI) – the size of material price moves
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Import & Currency Exposure (ICEI) – the cost effect of currency swings on imports
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Energy & Logistics (ELEI) – the pressure from fuel and freight
Each runs 1 to 4, from calm to high risk. The combined score uses the same scale:
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Below 1.49: Low risk – steady market, minimal movement
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1.5 to 2.24: Mild risk – small moves, light monitoring
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2.25 to 3.24: Moderate risk – clear movement, targeted action
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Above 3.25: High risk – unsettled market, immediate review
Current Position (02 August): SPSI = 2.25 (Moderate Boundary)
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MVEI = 2 → moderate material price volatility. Seven of the twelve traded lines eased this cycle, led by bitumen at 4.16% and titanium at 2.95%, while copper firmed 2.79% and platinum 1.90%. The move is two-sided but contained, wide enough to matter for timing yet orderly.
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ICEI = 2 → the currency channel lifted off its floor. The Dirham eased against every major this week, the euro up 1.22%, the yen up 3.79% and the rupee up 1.10% in Dirham terms, adding mild pressure to imported material costs. The Dollar peg leaves the core untouched.
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ELEI = 3 → the line stepped up. The August diesel reset to AED 3.80/L lifted the plant index to 136.61, and although dry-bulk freight corrected sharply, the domestic energy step-up and the Red Sea corridor keep the logistics line elevated this cycle.
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Methodology of SPSI Calculation:
One weighted score from three sub-indices: Market Volatility (MVEI) at 45%, Import & Currency Exposure (ICEI) at 30%, and Energy & Logistics (ELEI) at 25%. The weighting follows the cost structure of construction: material prices drive the largest weekly swings, currency exposure ranks second, freight and energy third.
This cycle: (MVEI 2 × 0.45) + (ICEI 2 × 0.30) + (ELEI 3 × 0.25) = 2.25 (Moderate Boundary).
Interpretation:
The composite of 2.25 lifts the procurement risk environment to the Moderate boundary for the cycle ending 02 August 2026, up sharply from 1.00 on 27 July and 1.70 at 29 June. All three channels rose this cycle, and the exposure is broadening beyond materials into energy and currency. The August diesel step-up, not freight, is what pushed the reading to the cusp; a second monthly fuel move or a renewed container climb through the Red Sea corridor is the path into Moderate territory.
Procurement Recommendation
1. Material Procurement: With the basket two-sided and copper firm, commit forward cover on copper-heavy MEP and busbar scopes while using the softer rebar and bitumen entries to price confirmed programmes. Hold flat-steel commitments against China export-quota risk.
2. Energy & Logistics: The August diesel reset to AED 3.80/L lifts plant and haulage costs and is the dominant driver of the elevated ELEI. Lock freight-linked rates now while dry-bulk indices sit at cycle lows (Baltic Dry ▼9.76%, Capesize ▼17.29%) to offset the domestic energy step-up.
3. Labour: Keep rate-escalation allowances and trade availability on the critical path, as labour remains the primary residual escalation risk in the basket.
Current Position (02 August): SPSI = 2.00 (Mild Risk)
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MVEI = 2 → mild material price volatility. Seven of the twelve traded lines eased this cycle, led by bitumen at 4.16% and titanium at 2.95%, while copper firmed 2.79% and platinum 1.90%. The move is two-sided but contained, holding the sub-index in the middle of the mild band.
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ICEI = 2 → the currency channel lifted off its floor. The Riyal eased against every major this week, the euro up 1.22%, the yen up 3.79% and the rupee up 1.10% in Riyal terms, adding mild pressure to imported material costs. The Dollar peg leaves the core untouched.
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ELEI = 2 → the line held flat. Aramco diesel stays fixed at SAR 1.79/L and the SERA tariff holds, so the plant index is unchanged at 106.66. Dry-bulk freight corrected sharply, and while the Red Sea corridor keeps a floor, the absence of any domestic energy step-up keeps the reading mid-band.
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Methodology of SPSI Calculation:
One weighted score from three sub-indices: Market Volatility (MVEI) at 45%, Import & Currency Exposure (ICEI) at 30%, and Energy & Logistics (ELEI) at 25%. The weighting follows the cost structure of construction: material prices drive the largest weekly swings, currency exposure ranks second, freight and energy third.
This cycle: (MVEI 2 × 0.45) + (ICEI 2 × 0.30) + (ELEI 2 × 0.25) = 2.00 (Mild Risk).
Interpretation:
The composite of 2.00 holds the procurement risk environment in the middle of the Mild Risk band for the cycle ending 02 August 2026, up from 1.70 at 29 June. The materials and currency channels firmed this cycle while the energy line held flat, so the exposure stays carried almost entirely by the traded materials and freight channels. With no domestic fuel step-up, KSA sits a quarter-point below the UAE this cycle.
Procurement Recommendation
1. Material Procurement: With the basket two-sided and copper firm, use the softer bitumen and steel entries to price confirmed programmes while committing forward cover on copper-heavy MEP scopes.
2. Energy & Logistics: Aramco diesel is fixed at SAR 1.79/L and the SERA tariff is steady, so plant and haulage costs are flat. Lock freight-linked rates now while dry-bulk indices sit at cycle lows (Baltic Dry ▼9.76%, Capesize ▼17.29%).
3. Labour: With base wages stable and plant lines anchored, prioritise trade availability and specialist lead-in on the critical path, as skilled labour remains the primary programme risk.
MATERIALS BASKET COMPOSITION
Hover any wedge for material name and basket share.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 16 · 04–11 May 2026
STEEL COMPLEX PRICE TREND
Click a tab to view that input — Rebar, HRC or CRC. Prices in USD per tonne, weekly.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR MATERIAL PURCHASING
Procurement signal across the construction materials basket — monitor, delay, or buy now.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
Commercial Guidance
The one-line read: a two-sided basket, freight down, diesel up. Cost risk is rotating out of materials and into labour and energy.
Copper up to 14.38 USD/kg, platinum firm. Rebar, nickel and aluminium softer; flat steel off its highs. Bitumen the steepest faller at 4.16%.
Demand firm, so the mixed basket is rotation not weakness. Freight fell hard both ways, but the AED 3.80/L diesel reset lifts on-site plant. Net logistics roughly flat.
Copper firmed 2.79%, trend intact, so lock cabling and busbar now. Nickel, polyvinyl, lead, rebar and titanium corrected into buys. Softer container freight helps fit-out.
Commit early on copper-heavy MEP and steel, while taking advantage of softer rebar, nickel, aluminium and bitumen prices where programmes are confirmed. Freight remains supportive, but higher diesel costs offset some of the saving. Allow more risk for labour and energy, where cost pressure is building.
The cycle consolidated. Materials held flat and freight fell, but the diesel reset lifted the UAE plant index to 136.61 and labour held firm, so labour and energy, not materials, are now the main escalation risk. The UAE SPSI sits at 2.25 on the Moderate boundary; KSA holds at 2.00, a quarter-point lower on fixed Aramco diesel. A controlled give-back, not a reversal, both markets comfortably above baseline.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 22 · 27 July–02 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
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