10 August 2026
This Week’s Cost Intelligence
The index moved higher this week instead of easing back. The UAE reading added 0.41% to close at 119.39, and the KSA reading added 0.44% to close at 110.47. Both markets are now moving in the same direction after a mixed few weeks, and both stay well above their September baseline, up 19.39% in the UAE and 10.47% in the KSA.
In recent weeks the metals have often split, with some rising while others fell. This week most of the basket moved up together, and only a few materials lost ground, showing broader strength rather than just a few materials pulling the average up.
Two things outside materials are still adding pressure. The Baltic Dry Index rose 15.42% and the Capesize segment jumped 31.27% this week, so a lower mill price will not always mean a lower delivered cost, and it is worth pricing every imported item on its landed cost.
Currency also moved. The Dirham and Riyal kept their peg to the Dollar as always, but eased against most other tracked currencies this week, especially the Australian Dollar, Sterling and the Euro. This adds a small cost to imports priced in those currencies, while Dollar-priced purchases stay unaffected.
STONEHAVEN COST INDEX HEADLINE KPIS
SCI Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026
Cost Index 0.00 As of 10 August 2026
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
SCI VS BASELINE — 42-WEEK TREND
Stonehaven Cost Index, weekly. Baseline 01 Sep 2025 = 100.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
SCI WEEK-ON-WEEK % CHANGE
Weekly movement of the Stonehaven Cost Index — momentum over the last 42 readings.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
SCI SUB-INDEX TRENDS
Click a tab to view that index — Materials, Labour or Plant.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
THIS CYCLE'S DRIVER NOTE
Commercial commentary on the cycle's price action from Stonehaven's Managing Director.
Both markets moved the same way this cycle. The UAE SCI rose to 119.39 and the KSA SCI rose to 110.47, both lifted by the same materials.
The real story is freight, not the index move itself. The Baltic Dry Index and the Capesize segment both jumped sharply this week, so a calm materials market still carries a heavier cost on the way in.
For buyers on either side of the border, the message is the same: secure aluminium-linked packages now, and price every imported line on landed cost, not mill price.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
MATERIAL MOVEMENT THIS WEEK
Spot prices and % change across weekly, monthly, year-to-date and year-on-year windows. Applies to both UAE and KSA editions.
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Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
To view the price fluctuations in detail, please download our latest dataset below.
CUMULATIVE % CHANGE VS BASELINE BY MATERIAL
How far each tracked input has moved since 01 Sep 2025 = 100. Cement and ReadyMix are local series; all other materials are global.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
MARKET MATERIAL WATCHLIST
Three materials to monitor closely over the coming week.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
Aluminum – Forward Cover (▲)
Forecast: Expect the landed cost of aluminium to keep rising over the coming week even if the primary LME/SHFE price steadies, as this week's sharp freight reversal (Capesize up 31.27%, Baltic Dry up 15.42%) works its way through. The metal itself should hold its gains or firm a little further, with GCC facade and cladding demand still behind it.
Action: secure forward cover now on facade, cladding and curtain wall packages. Waiting for the primary price to pull back is unlikely to help, since the freight overlay will keep landed cost firm regardless.
Zinc – Firming (▲)
Forecast: Zinc should keep firming in step with aluminium, supported by steady galvanising and waterproofing demand. A move toward the USD 3,750 to 3,800 a tonne range over the coming week would confirm the non-ferrous strength is broadening rather than resting on aluminium alone.
Action: use the firming trend to confirm, rather than delay, galvanised structural, roads and waterproofing commitments.
Nickel – Tactical Entry (▼)
Forecast: Expect this pull-back to stabilise rather than extend. A modest recovery toward USD 17,000 a tonne is plausible over the coming week if broader metals sentiment holds firm, since the move reads as a correction from recent strength rather than a change in trend.
Action: use this window to price confirmed stainless and specialist alloy packages at the softer level. Treat it as a tactical entry, not a reason to defer procurement.
THIS WEEK'S MARKET MOVERS — WOW %
Material-by-material price movement over the week ending 10 August 2026. Applies to both UAE and KSA editions.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
AVERAGE SCI FLUCTUATION
VS MATERIAL PRICES
Click a tab to switch material — Oil (Brent), Steel-rebar or Aluminium. Bars show monthly average material price (left axis); line shows Avg. SCI (right axis).
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
Driver of the Cycle – Freight and Logistics Risk Returns to the Fore
Impact of Regional Geopolitical Tensions on Imported Materials
Steel, aluminium and other imported materials on GCC programmes carry a hidden cost: a freight and insurance premium tied to regional risk, which shows up before the commodity price itself moves. Continued disruption in the Red Sea is pushing container and dry-bulk shipping onto the longer Cape of Good Hope route, adding ten to fourteen days to transit times into UAE and Saudi ports and tightening available capacity. This is a lasting shift in shipping routes, not a short-term spike, so contractors with fixed-price import commitments should build freight and insurance cover into their tenders rather than wait for rates to return to normal.
Freight, Logistics and Insurance Costs
The latest figures confirm rising shipping cost pressure. The Baltic Dry Index closed at 3,083 points, with Capesize reaching 5,105 points, while Panamax and container freight rates also moved higher. This could increase the landed cost of imported materials, particularly steel, timber and cementitious products. It is advisable to lock in freight rates where possible and review insurance costs on active shipments to avoid unexpected cost increases.
CURRENCY & INFLATION LENS
AED VS KEY TRADING CURRENCIES
UAE Dirham vs key trading currencies, weekly movement and trailing averages.
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Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026
AED FX EXPOSURE — WOW % CHANGE
Weekly currency moves against AED across the eight tracked import-pricing pairs.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026
SAR VS KEY TRADING CURRENCIES
Saudi Riyal vs key trading currencies, weekly movement and trailing averages.
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Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026
SAR FX EXPOSURE — WOW % CHANGE
Weekly currency moves against SAR across the eight tracked import-pricing pairs.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026
Stonehaven analysis
The UAE Dirham and Saudi Riyal held their pegs against the US dollar this cycle, keeping core GCC procurement costs anchored while movement was concentrated among the region's other trading currencies.
The Australian dollar, sterling and euro all firmed, up 0.83%, 0.59% and 0.32% respectively, making Australian, UK and European-sourced materials and specialist equipment marginally dearer. The Singapore dollar and Chinese yuan edged higher too, at 0.19% and 0.12%, a mild uptick for Singapore- and China-sourced steel, rebar, PVC and finishes.
The Indian rupee and Japanese yen moved the other way, down 0.07% and 1.20%, easing costs for India- and Japan-sourced labour, components and machinery.
Overall, currency movements remain contained but broad-based. Buyers can continue to favour dollar- and local-currency-priced contracts, while using the softer rupee and yen to lock in near-term India- and Japan-sourced procurement.
GLOBAL INPUTS & FREIGHT BENCHMARKS
Logistics & freight — construction cost multipliers.
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Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026 · *Data as of 10 August 2026
FREIGHT & SHIPPING INDICES
Click a tab to view that index — Baltic Dry, Capesize, Panamax or Container. Monthly readings.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026
Stonehaven Procurement Strategy Index (SPSI)
The SPSI scores procurement risk in one number, built from three inputs:
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Market Volatility (MVEI) – the size of material price moves
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Import & Currency Exposure (ICEI) – the cost effect of currency swings on imports
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Energy & Logistics (ELEI) – the pressure from fuel and freight
Each runs 1 to 4, from calm to high risk. The combined score uses the same scale:
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Below 1.49: Low risk – steady market, minimal movement
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1.5 to 2.24: Mild risk – small moves, light monitoring
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2.25 to 3.24: Moderate risk – clear movement, targeted action
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Above 3.25: High risk – unsettled market, immediate review
Current Position (10 August): SPSI = 1.50 (Mild Risk, Boundary)
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MVEI = 1 → low material price volatility. Aluminium's 4.68% advance was the standout move of the cycle, but it remains an isolated line within an eleven-material basket where the great majority of tracked lines, including copper, polyvinyl, platinum, titanium and CRC, held within half a percent of flat.
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ICEI = 1 → low import and currency exposure. Every tracked cross moved within roughly 1% this week, and the moves ran in both directions against the Dirham, firming against the euro, sterling, Australian and Singapore dollars while easing against the yen and holding close to flat against the rupee and yuan. The Dollar peg leaves the core untouched.
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ELEI = 3 → the line carrying the score. Diesel held flat at AED 3.80/L, leaving the plant index unchanged at 136.61, but the Capesize index's 31.27% jump drove a broader dry-bulk and container reversal that keeps logistics elevated even with the domestic energy line settled.
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Methodology of SPSI Calculation:
One weighted score from three sub-indices: Market Volatility (MVEI) at 45%, Import & Currency Exposure (ICEI) at 30%, and Energy & Logistics (ELEI) at 25%. The weighting follows the cost structure of construction: material prices drive the largest weekly swings, currency exposure ranks second, freight and energy third.
This cycle: (MVEI 1 × 0.45) + (ICEI 1 × 0.30) + (ELEI 3 × 0.25) = 1.50 (Mild Risk, Boundary).
Interpretation:
The composite eases sharply to 1.50 for the cycle ending 10 August 2026, down from 2.25 on 02 August, settling at the floor of the Mild Risk band. Both the materials and currency channels retreated after last cycle's diesel-driven spike, and logistics is now the sole channel still elevated, driven by the Capesize freight jump rather than any domestic fuel move.
Procurement Recommendation
1. Material Procurement: With aluminium the clear outlier this cycle, commit forward cover now on facade, cladding and curtain wall packages, while the softer nickel print offers a tactical entry for specialist alloy and stainless-linked commitments.
2. Energy & Logistics: Diesel is unchanged at AED 3.80/L, holding the plant index flat at 136.61, so freight is the single line demanding attention. Lock binding rates on imported structural steel and bulk cementitious cargoes before the six to eight week transmission window closes.
3. Labour: The labour index remains unchanged at 106.81. Maintain existing rate-escalation allowances and continue to prioritise trade availability on the critical path.
Current Position (10 August): SPSI = 1.50 (Mild Risk, Boundary)
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MVEI = 1 → low material price volatility. Aluminium's 4.68% advance was the standout move of the cycle, but it remains an isolated line within an eleven-material basket where the great majority of tracked lines, including copper, polyvinyl, platinum, titanium and CRC, held within half a percent of flat.
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ICEI = 1 → low import and currency exposure. Every tracked cross moved within roughly 1% this week, and the moves ran in both directions against the Riyal, firming against the euro, sterling, Australian and Singapore dollars while easing against the yen and holding close to flat against the rupee and yuan. The Dollar peg leaves the core untouched.
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ELEI = 3 → the line carrying the score. Aramco diesel stays fixed at SAR 1.79/L and the SERA tariff holds, leaving the plant index unchanged at 106.66, but the Capesize index's 31.27% jump drove a broader dry-bulk and container reversal that keeps logistics elevated this cycle.
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Methodology of SPSI Calculation:
One weighted score from three sub-indices: Market Volatility (MVEI) at 45%, Import & Currency Exposure (ICEI) at 30%, and Energy & Logistics (ELEI) at 25%. The weighting follows the cost structure of construction: material prices drive the largest weekly swings, currency exposure ranks second, freight and energy third.
This cycle: (MVEI 1 × 0.45) + (ICEI 1 × 0.30) + (ELEI 3 × 0.25) = 1.50 (Mild Risk, Boundary).
Interpretation:
The composite eases to 1.50 for the cycle ending 10 August 2026, down from 2.00 on 02 August, settling right at the floor of the Mild Risk band, just above the Low Risk threshold. Materials and currency risk eased in step with the UAE reading; energy and logistics is the sole channel still elevated, and with no domestic fuel move this cycle, the Capesize freight jump is now the entire driver of that line.
Procurement Recommendation
1. Material Procurement: With aluminium the clear outlier this cycle, commit forward cover now on facade, cladding and curtain wall packages, while the softer nickel print offers a tactical entry for specialist alloy and stainless-linked commitments.
2. Energy & Logistics: Aramco diesel is fixed at SAR 1.79/L and the SERA tariff is steady, holding the plant index flat at 106.66, so freight is the single line demanding attention. Lock binding rates on imported structural steel and bulk cementitious cargoes before the six to eight week transmission window closes.
3. Labour: With base wages stable and the labour index unchanged at 100.00, prioritise trade availability and specialist lead-in on the critical path.
MATERIALS BASKET COMPOSITION
Hover any wedge for material name and basket share.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 16 · 04–11 May 2026
STEEL COMPLEX PRICE TREND
Click a tab to view that input — Rebar, HRC or CRC. Prices in USD per tonne, weekly.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR MATERIAL PURCHASING
Procurement signal across the construction materials basket — monitor, delay, or buy now.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026
Commercial Guidance
The one-line read: aluminium led, freight reversed sharply. Cost risk is rotating out of a broad materials move and into logistics.
Aluminium led the complex, up 4.68% to USD 3,344.16/t, with zinc, bitumen and HRC firming alongside it. Nickel and rebar eased modestly, down 1.57% and 0.41%; copper firmed a modest 0.43%. CRC held flat at USD 576.01/t for a second week.
Demand across data-centre, grid and infrastructure stays firm, so aluminium's advance reads as a genuine metals move rather than a positioning unwind. Freight reversed sharply higher, Capesize up 31.27%, while diesel held flat at AED 3.80/L. Net logistics is now a clear headwind, not a wash.
Copper's modest 0.43% firming still argues for locking cabling and busbar now, before it compounds. Nickel and steel-rebar are the two flagged buys this cycle, a tactical window on stainless and confirmed programmes. Rising container freight, up 6.36%, is a fresh headwind for fit-out imports.
Commit early on aluminium and zinc-heavy scopes while the trend is up, and use the softer nickel and rebar entries on confirmed programmes. Freight has turned from tailwind to headwind this cycle, weight risk allowances toward freight escalation on the critical path, with diesel and labour both settled in both markets.
The cycle turned aluminium-led rather than broad-based, with freight the standout swing factor after two weeks of correction. The UAE index closed at 119.39 and the KSA index at 110.47, both firming modestly week-on-week and comfortably above their September 2025 baselines. Diesel and labour held flat in both markets, so the freight reversal, Capesize up 31.27%, is the dominant risk signal heading into the next cycle. Both SPSI readings ease to 1.50, sitting at the boundary of the Mild Risk band, with logistics now the sole channel still carrying elevated exposure.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 23 · 02 August–10 August 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
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