21 September 2026
This Week’s Cost Intelligence
The index rose in both markets this week. The UAE reading firmed 0.53% to close at 124.83 and the KSA reading firmed 0.58% to close at 113.51. Both markets remain well above their September baseline, up 24.83% in the UAE and 13.51% in Saudi Arabia.
Metals drove the rise. Copper led the basket, up 5.63%, and steel coil, lead and zinc also moved higher. Polyvinyl and bitumen eased after a strong run, but bitumen is still well above its level at the start of the year. Cement and ready-mix prices held steady.
Freight remains a pressure point. Bulk shipping rates eased slightly this week, with the Baltic Dry Index down 1.34%, but they remain high. Container rates rose again, up 0.70%. Shipping costs are still a pressure, so every imported item should be costed on its landed rate.
Currency gave buyers a little help. The Dirham and Riyal held their Dollar peg, so Dollar-priced purchases are unaffected. Both strengthened against most other tracked currencies, most notably the Japanese Yen, Sterling and the Euro, which makes goods from those markets slightly cheaper. The Chinese Yuan was the one exception, adding a small cost to Chinese supply.
STONEHAVEN COST INDEX HEADLINE KPIS
SCI Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026
Cost Index 0.00 As of 21 September 2026
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
SCI VS BASELINE — 48-WEEK TREND
Stonehaven Cost Index, weekly. Baseline 01 Sep 2025 = 100.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
SCI WEEK-ON-WEEK % CHANGE
Weekly movement of the Stonehaven Cost Index — momentum over the last 48 readings.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
SCI SUB-INDEX TRENDS
Click a tab to view that index — Materials, Labour or Plant.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
THIS CYCLE'S DRIVER NOTE
Commercial commentary on the cycle's price action from Stonehaven's Managing Director.
Both markets rose again this cycle. The UAE SCI closed at 124.83 and the KSA SCI at 113.51, with metals doing most of the work.
Copper jumped 5.63% to USD 14.74/kg, and steel coil, lead and zinc all followed it up. Electrical packages and anything with a lot of cabling will feel this first.
For buyers: Hold off on new copper orders, use the stronger dirham and riyal on European and Japanese orders, and lock in container freight on fit-out packages while you can.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
MATERIAL MOVEMENT THIS WEEK
Spot prices and % change across weekly, monthly, year-to-date and year-on-year windows. Applies to both UAE and KSA editions.
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Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
To view the price fluctuations in detail, please download our latest dataset below.
CUMULATIVE % CHANGE VS BASELINE BY MATERIAL
How far each tracked input has moved since 01 Sep 2025 = 100. Cement and ReadyMix are local series; all other materials are global.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
MARKET MATERIAL WATCHLIST
Three materials to monitor closely over the coming week.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
Copper – Rebound Holding (▲)
Forecast: Copper starts the week at USD 14.74/kg, up 5.63% on last week and close to its highest price ever. Tight supply and strong demand from power grids and data centres are keeping prices high. We expect copper to stay firm this week, with some day-to-day ups and downs.
Action: Fix prices now for cabling, busbar and other MEP packages where quantities are confirmed. Do not wait for prices to fall, as a big drop looks unlikely.
HRC & Zinc – Further Gains Likely (▲)
Forecast: Steel coil (HRC) starts the week at USD 1,323 a tonne, up 3.93% on last week and 40.74% higher than at the start of the year. Zinc rose 3.26% to USD 3,931.05 a tonne. Both are expected to hold steady or rise further this week.
Action: Place orders early for structural steel, decking, galvanised steel and roofing sheets, especially on fixed-price contracts.
Bitumen & Polyvinyl – Pullback Then Flat (▼)
Forecast: Bitumen fell 4.13% to USD 763.04 a tonne and polyvinyl fell 4.88% to USD 709.25 a tonne, as oil and chemical prices softened. Bitumen is still 79.52% higher than at the start of the year, so this looks like a short pause, not the start of a longer fall.
Action: Use the lower price this week to book deliveries for roads, waterproofing and PVC drainage.
THIS WEEK'S MARKET MOVERS — WOW %
Material-by-material price movement over the week ending 21 September 2026. Applies to both UAE and KSA editions.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
AVERAGE SCI FLUCTUATION
VS MATERIAL PRICES
Click a tab to switch material — Oil (Brent), Steel-rebar or Aluminium. Bars show monthly average material price (left axis); line shows Avg. SCI (right axis).
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
Driver of the Cycle – Platinum and the Built Environment
Platinum in the Construction Supply Chain: Uses and Applications
You will never find platinum in a bill of quantities, yet it is inside many of the buildings we price. It lines the equipment used to make high-quality glass and glass fibre, so it sits behind curtain walls, glazing and insulation. It also turns up in HVAC sensors, sealants and coatings. And it is a key material in hydrogen electrolysers and fuel cells, which links it to green-hydrogen projects such as NEOM.
Impact of Platinum Prices on Construction in the UAE and KSA
Platinum closed at USD 1,801.40 per troy ounce, up 1.21% on the week but 16.67% below January. It is still 26.55% dearer since baseline, but the recent trend is flat to softer. With only a 4% share of the basket, it had little effect on this week's SCI.
For everyday building packages, the impact is small and slow. Glass and insulation makers usually absorb moves of this size. The real exposure is on glass-heavy towers, hospitality schemes and giga-projects, and most of all on hydrogen work, where equipment prices track platinum closely. The advice this cycle: hold glazing allowances as they are, and watch platinum as an early signal for hydrogen budgets.
CURRENCY & INFLATION LENS
AED VS KEY TRADING CURRENCIES
UAE Dirham vs key trading currencies, weekly movement and trailing averages.
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Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026
AED FX EXPOSURE — WOW % CHANGE
Weekly currency moves against AED across the eight tracked import-pricing pairs.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026
SAR VS KEY TRADING CURRENCIES
Saudi Riyal vs key trading currencies, weekly movement and trailing averages.
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Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026
SAR FX EXPOSURE — WOW % CHANGE
Weekly currency moves against SAR across the eight tracked import-pricing pairs.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026
Stonehaven analysis
This week the dirham and riyal got stronger against most other currencies, which makes several imports a little cheaper. The Japanese yen fell the most, down about 2.3%, a good window for Japanese plant and machinery. The euro and sterling each fell about 1%, trimming the cost of European facades, lifts and specialist MEP equipment. The Indian rupee and Singapore dollar each eased 0.70%, and the Australian dollar 0.43%.
The one exception was the Chinese yuan, which rose 0.23%. Much of the steel, aluminium, cabling and finishes on UAE and Saudi projects comes from China, so this takes back a small part of the saving. The yuan is also above its six-month average, which points to a slow, steady rise.
Procurement teams in both markets can keep relying on the peg. Use the stronger dirham and riyal now on European and Japanese orders, and keep an eye on the yuan for large Chinese supply contracts.
GLOBAL INPUTS & FREIGHT BENCHMARKS
Logistics & freight — construction cost multipliers.
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Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026 · *Data as of 21 September 2026
FREIGHT & SHIPPING INDICES
Click a tab to view that index — Baltic Dry, Capesize, Panamax or Container. Monthly readings.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026
Stonehaven Procurement Strategy Index (SPSI)
The SPSI scores procurement risk in one number, built from three inputs:
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Market Volatility (MVEI) – the size of material price moves
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Import & Currency Exposure (ICEI) – the cost effect of currency swings on imports
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Energy & Logistics (ELEI) – the pressure from fuel and freight
Each runs 1 to 4, from calm to high risk. The combined score uses the same scale:
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Below 1.49: Low risk – steady market, minimal movement
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1.5 to 2.24: Mild risk – small moves, light monitoring
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2.25 to 3.24: Moderate risk – clear movement, targeted action
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Above 3.25: High risk – unsettled market, immediate review
Current Position (21 September): SPSI = 1.75 (Mild Risk)
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MVEI = 2 → moderate material price volatility. The spread was wide this week, from copper up 5.63% and HRC up 3.93% to polyvinyl down 4.88% and bitumen down 4.13%, although most of the heavily weighted materials moved by less than 1%.
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ICEI = 2 → mild import and currency exposure. The yen moved 2.31%, and the euro and sterling each moved about 1% against the dirham, enough to lift the currency score out of the low band. The Dollar peg was unchanged.
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ELEI = 1 → low energy and logistics exposure. Diesel held at AED 4.30/L, the Baltic Dry Index eased 1.34% and the container index rose only 0.70%, so no fuel or freight line moved enough to raise the score.
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Methodology of SPSI Calculation:
One weighted score from three sub-indices: Market Volatility (MVEI) at 45%, Import & Currency Exposure (ICEI) at 30%, and Energy & Logistics (ELEI) at 25%. The weighting follows the cost structure of construction: material prices drive the largest weekly swings, currency exposure ranks second, freight and energy third.
This cycle: (MVEI 2 × 0.45) + (ICEI 2 × 0.30) + (ELEI 1 × 0.25) = 1.75 (Mild Risk).
Interpretation:
The SPSI rose to 1.75 for the week ending 21 September 2026, up from 1.45 on 14 September, moving back from Low Risk into Mild Risk. Over the five weeks in this issue it read 1.75, 1.45, 1.95, 1.25 and 1.75. The peak came on 07 September, when the diesel rise to AED 4.30/L and a 13.2% jump in the Baltic Dry Index pushed the energy and logistics score to 3.
This week the risk moved from freight to currency. Materials stayed moderate, currency rose as the yen, euro and sterling moved around 1% or more, and energy and logistics eased with diesel steady and bulk freight softer. Conditions remain manageable, but copper and currency moves need close watching.
Procurement Recommendation
1. Material Procurement: Hold off on open copper commitments where the programme allows, as copper sits near record levels after a 5.63% rebound. Nickel is trending lower and can be bought now for stainless and alloy scopes. Commit structural steel and HRC-linked packages early, and use the bitumen and polyvinyl pullback to secure roads, waterproofing and drainage supply.
2. Energy & Logistics: Diesel is steady at AED 4.30/L after the September increase, so reset plant hire and haulage allowances to this level. Bulk freight has eased slightly but remains high, and container rates are still rising, so fix forward freight on container-heavy fit-out and MEP cargoes.
3. Labour: The labour index is unchanged at 106.81. Keep existing escalation allowances and focus on securing skilled trades for critical-path work.
Current Position (21 September): SPSI = 1.75 (Mild Risk)
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MVEI = 2 → moderate material price volatility. The spread was wide this week, from copper up 5.63% and HRC up 3.93% to polyvinyl down 4.88% and bitumen down 4.13%, although most of the heavily weighted materials moved by less than 1%.
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ICEI = 2 → mild import and currency exposure. The yen moved 2.30%, and the euro and sterling each moved about 1% against the riyal, enough to lift the currency score out of the low band. The Dollar peg was unchanged.
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ELEI = 1 → low energy and logistics exposure. Aramco diesel held at SAR 1.79/L, the Baltic Dry Index eased 1.34% and the container index rose only 0.70%, so no fuel or freight line moved enough to raise the score.
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Methodology of SPSI Calculation:
One weighted score from three sub-indices: Market Volatility (MVEI) at 45%, Import & Currency Exposure (ICEI) at 30%, and Energy & Logistics (ELEI) at 25%. The weighting follows the cost structure of construction: material prices drive the largest weekly swings, currency exposure ranks second, freight and energy third.
This cycle: (MVEI 2 × 0.45) + (ICEI 2 × 0.30) + (ELEI 1 × 0.25) = 1.75 (Mild Risk).
Interpretation:
The SPSI rose to 1.75 for the week ending 21 September 2026, up from 1.45 on 14 September, moving back from Low Risk into Mild Risk. Over the five weeks in this issue it read 1.75, 1.45, 1.95, 1.25 and 1.75. The peak came on 07 September, when a 13.2% jump in the Baltic Dry Index and firmer container rates pushed the energy and logistics score to 3, even with Saudi diesel unchanged.
This week the risk moved from freight to currency. Materials stayed moderate, currency rose as the yen, euro and sterling moved around 1% or more, and energy and logistics eased with diesel stable and bulk freight softer. Conditions remain manageable, but copper and currency moves need close watching.
Procurement Recommendation
1. Material Procurement: Hold off on open copper commitments where the programme allows, as copper sits near record levels after a 5.63% rebound. Nickel is trending lower and can be bought now for stainless and alloy scopes. Commit structural steel and HRC-linked packages early, and use the bitumen and polyvinyl pullback to secure roads, waterproofing and drainage supply. Local cement and ready-mix remain stable and can be bought on normal terms.
2. Energy & Logistics: Aramco diesel is steady at SAR 1.79/L and is next reviewed in January, so plant hire and haulage allowances can be held at current levels for the rest of 2026. Bulk freight has eased slightly but remains high, and container rates are still rising, so fix forward freight on container-heavy fit-out and MEP cargoes.
3. Labour: The labour index is unchanged at 100.00. Keep existing escalation allowances and focus on securing skilled trades for critical-path work, particularly on giga-project and event-driven programmes competing for the same labour pool.
MATERIALS BASKET COMPOSITION
Hover any wedge for material name and basket share.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14–21 September 2026
STEEL COMPLEX PRICE TREND
Click a tab to view that input — Rebar, HRC or CRC. Prices in USD per tonne, weekly.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR MATERIAL PURCHASING
Procurement signal across the construction materials basket — monitor, delay, or buy now.
Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026
Commercial Guidance
The one-line read: metals led the week, copper most of all. Bitumen and polyvinyl eased, and freight stays firm. Costs are still rising, but at a manageable pace.
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Source: Stonehaven Cost Index Issue 24 · 14 September–21 September 2026 · UAE & KSA editions
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