13 November 2025

This Week’s Cost Intelligence

 

The index steadies at 101.75, up 0.36% on the week and 1.75% above our September baseline. After last week’s dip this is a measured, metals-led recovery rather than a fresh leg up, and it narrows the buyer’s window that opened a week ago. Most of the firming sat in the metals complex, with Platinum, Lead, Copper and Aluminium all higher, while bitumen and PVC continued to ease.

 

The recovery was led by Platinum, up 3.20%, followed by Lead 1.82%, Copper 1.74% and Aluminium 1.23%, with steel-rebar (up 0.63%) and Hot-Rolled Coil (up 0.94%) firming more modestly. Against that, Bitumen fell furthest at 2.05%, with Nickel 0.63%, Polyvinyl 0.55% and Zinc 0.13% also softer. The pattern points budgets in two directions: metals tied to structural, electrical and mechanical scopes are rebuilding momentum, so the easy savings there are closing, while roads, drainage and waterproofing scopes still have room. Where programme allows, this is the week to secure the bitumen and PVC lines before they turn.

 

Two forces still run against the trend. Freight firmed sharply again, with the Baltic Dry up 5.65% to 2,077 and Capesize up 6.96% to 3,133, so landed cost, not mill price, remains the pressure point on bulk imports. On currency, the Dirham firmed against the Euro, Pound, Australian Dollar and Rupee, the Australian Dollar easing most at 1.36% and the Pound at 0.76%, a small but free saving on European, UK and Australian sourcing, while easing slightly against the Yen, Yuan and Singapore Dollar.

 

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Copper – Mild Uptrend (▲) Forecast:

 

Copper firmed 1.74% this week and continues to hold a strong gain year to date. The near-term outlook is stable to modestly higher, in the region of 0% to +2%, with energy-transition and grid demand sustaining a firm price floor.

 

Watch: China industrial data, LME inventory levels, USD strength and global manufacturing PMI. For project teams, copper-linked MEP, cable and busbar packages are unlikely to cheapen from here, so secure forward cover on near-term requirements rather than waiting for a dip.

Bitumen – Further Softening (▼) Forecast:

 

Bitumen fell furthest in the basket this week, down 2.05%, and is forecast to extend that softening by a further 1% to 2% on the back of easing crude.

 

Watch: Brent crude trend, refinery operating rates and seasonal demand from road projects. The continued easing keeps a window open on asphalt, waterproofing and drainage scopes, so lock those call-offs where tender terms permit.

 

Polyvinyl (PVC Resin) – Weak Trend (▼) Forecast:

 

Polyvinyl eased 0.55% this week and is forecast to decline a further 0.5% to 1.5%, held down by weak Asian demand.

 

Watch: China export prices, ethylene and VCM feedstock costs, and container freight. The soft trend supports securing pipework, conduit and PVC-based finishes packages at improved rates in the near term.

 

Our Commercial Interpretation

 

The index edged back up this week, but it isn't a broad rise so much as a metals-led recovery. The firmness sits in platinum, lead, copper and aluminium, scopes tied to structural, electrical and mechanical works, while bitumen and PVC kept easing, so roads, drainage and waterproofing are still getting cheaper to buy. The standing cost pressure remains bulk freight rather than materials, with the Baltic Dry and Capesize both up sharply again. The smart move is to lock in the still-falling bitumen and PVC scopes now, take forward cover on metals where exposure is significant before momentum builds, and price the freight uplift into landed cost on bulk imports, rather than making any broad inflation adjustment to your budget.

 

Role of Platinum in the Construction Industry

 

Platinum is a specialist metal, not a bulk one. Its construction role is narrower than steel, copper or zinc, but it is growing as GCC projects become more complex and sustainability-driven. On a large development, platinum turns up in four main places: emission-control systems on site plant, high-specification MEP instrumentation, laboratory and cleanroom fit-outs, and certain advanced waterproofing systems.

 

Where Platinum Appears on a GCC Project

 

Four product categories account for most platinum use on a typical large-scale GCC site:

 

1. Exhaust and Emission Systems on Temporary Works Plant – Diesel generators, concrete pumps and tower cranes must meet UAE and KSA emission standards. Platinum-group catalysts sit inside the compliant exhaust systems, so their cost feeds back into plant hire rates.

 

2. High-Temperature and Corrosion-Resistant MEP Components – Platinum-tipped thermocouples, temperature detectors and sensor arrays are specified in pharmaceutical, food-processing and advanced manufacturing fit-outs, as well as district cooling plant rooms.

 

3. Laboratory and Cleanroom Infrastructure – Platinum crucibles, electrodes and contact materials feature in laboratory benching, fume extraction and cleanroom HVAC on life-sciences and semiconductor-adjacent projects.

 

4. Specialist Waterproofing and Coatings – Platinum catalysts activate certain high-performance silicone and polyurethane waterproofing systems used on green roofs, podium decks and water-retaining structures where a long service life is required.

 

The procurement link is direct: NYMEX and LBMA spot pricing sets the base rate for these specialist components, with fabricators adding a tolling margin on top. When the spot price is rising, committing early on platinum-bearing items is the sensible move.

 

Market-Driven Platinum Costs and Their Toll on Middle East Construction

 

Platinum posted the week's standout move, up 3.20% week-on-week to USD 1,579.50 per troy ounce as at 13 November 2025, the largest single material gain in the basket. It is now the strongest performer since the 01 September 2025 baseline, sitting around 11% above it. The move is driven by tight mine supply from South Africa, where logistics disruption and power constraints continue to limit output, alongside recovering demand from the automotive catalyst and electronics sectors.

 

For GCC contractors and procurement managers, three cost effects are emerging:

 

1. Specialist MEP packages are repricing. Suppliers of platinum-bearing sensors, thermocouples and process instrumentation are passing the higher spot rate through to component prices.

 

2. Plant hire rates may edge up. On projects needing emission-compliant diesel plant, hire companies are likely to reprice over the usual three to five month lag as they replace catalyst-fitted equipment at current platinum costs.

 

3. Waterproofing surcharges are appearing. Suppliers of platinum-catalysed silicone membrane systems are starting to apply surcharges, particularly on orders with long delivery windows.

 

With supply tight and no near-term reason for the trend to reverse, the practical steps are simple: commit early on platinum-bearing specialist components where exposure is significant, build the three to five month plant-hire lag into cost plans, and confirm specialist pricing at procurement stage to avoid repricing on long-lead mechanical, electrical and waterproofing scopes.

 

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Stonehaven Analysis 

 

The Dirham’s week was mixed, but the bias ran against it. It eased against most majors, slipping 0.83% versus the Euro, 0.58% versus the Pound, 0.41% versus the Australian Dollar and 0.36% versus the Singapore Dollar, with a marginal 0.05% softening against the Yuan. It firmed only against the Yen, up 0.41%, and the Rupee, up 0.05%, with the Dollar peg unchanged.

None of these moves is large, and none points in a single direction. The practical effect is a small re-pricing of where imports are cheapest: European, UK, Australian and Singapore sourcing edged up this week, while Japanese and Indian sourcing eased slightly. On its own none of that changes a budget, but it shifts the margin on import-heavy packages.

Impact on Construction Costs

 

1. Imported Materials

A softer Dirham against the Euro, Pound and Australian Dollar nudges up the landed cost of facade systems, MEP equipment and structural steel drawn from those markets. The offset is that Japanese and Indian-sourced equipment and components, where the Yen and Rupee eased against the Dirham, cost marginally less. Net of the two, the basket is close to flat, with the mild pressure concentrated on European, UK and Australian scopes and slight relief on Japanese and Indian ones.

2. Currency Risk

These are small, externally driven moves tied to global rate expectations and broader sentiment, and they can reverse just as quickly. The sensible posture is to hold cost plans as they are, keep a closer eye on long-lead European and UK-sourced packages where the Dirham softened, and avoid repricing budgets on the strength of a short-term currency swing.

Overall Market Position

On balance the currency picture is broadly neutral this week, with light pressure on European, UK and Australian imports offset by mild relief on Japanese and Indian sourcing. It warrants monitoring, not a budget response. In short:

• Materials: small pressure on European, UK, Australian and Singapore imports; mild relief on Japanese and Indian sourcing

• Overall: stable, with the easing and firming pairs broadly cancelling across the basket

Stonehaven Procurement Strategy Index (SPSI)

 

The SPSI provides a simple view of current procurement risk in the construction market, based on three key factors:

• Market Volatility (MVEI) – how much material prices are moving

• Import & Currency Exposure (ICEI) – how much currency changes affect what you import

• Energy & Logistics (ELEI) – how much fuel and freight costs are pushing things up

Each one scores 1 to 4, where 1 means stable and 4 means high risk. The overall SPSI uses the same scale:

• Below 1.5: Low risk – market stable, very little price movement

• 1.5 to 2.25: Mild risk – small price moves, keep an eye on it

• 2.25 to 3.25: Moderate risk – clear market movement, take targeted action

• Above 3.25: High risk – the market is shaky, review your buying right away

Current Position (13 Nov): SPSI = 1.00 (Low Risk)

• MVEI = 1 → low material price volatility (raw score 1.42, below the 1.5 Low-band threshold). Selective upside in platinum (up 3.20%), lead (up 1.82%) and copper (up 1.74%) is balanced by softening in bitumen (down 2.05%), nickel (down 0.63%), polyvinyl (down 0.55%) and zinc (down 0.13%), so the basket shows no broad-based stress

• ICEI = 1 → low import and currency exposure (raw score 1.50). The AED and SAR firmed against GBP (down 0.76%), EUR (down 0.60%), AUD (down 1.36%) and INR (down 0.18%), easing only marginally against JPY, CNY and SGD, with the USD peg stable

• ELEI = 1 → contained energy and logistics exposure (raw score 1.60, below the 1.75 threshold). The dry bulk segment advanced, with the Baltic Dry up 5.65%, Capesize up 6.96% and Panamax up 4.17%, offset by a softer container index (down 0.37%) and diesel stable at AED 2.67/L

Methodology of SPSI Calculation:

 

The SPSI combines three sub-indices into a single weighted score: Market Volatility Exposure (MVEI) at 45%, Import & Currency Exposure (ICEI) at 30%, and Energy & Logistics Exposure (ELEI) at 25%.

The 45/30/25 split reflects how construction costs are built and how material price moves drive the largest week-on-week shifts, currency exposure on imports comes second, and freight and energy costs third.

This week's calculation: (MVEI 1 × 0.45) + (ICEI 1 × 0.30) + (ELEI 1 × 0.25) = 1.00 (Low Risk).

Interpretation:

 

The market sits in the low risk band this week. Material prices are moving in a contained way, with selective metals strength offset by softening in bitumen, nickel and polyvinyl, currency exposure is favourable on European and Australasian sourcing, and freight, while firmer in the dry bulk segment, is offset within the composite by softer container rates and stable diesel.

One caveat: although the composite is a genuine Low Risk reading, each of the three sub-indices sits close to its band threshold, so a modest input shift in the next cycle could lift the score into the Mild Risk band. Keep routine checks going on LME inventories, shipping indices and AED cross rates so you spot any sustained escalation early.

Procurement Recommendation

 

1. Material Procurement: The Low Risk composite supports a normal procurement posture across the basket. Apply selective forward cover on platinum-bearing specialist MEP, instrumentation and catalysed scopes where upward momentum is confirmed (up 3.20% WoW), and monitor lead (up 1.82%) and copper (up 1.74%) on cabling and busbar-heavy packages. Use the bitumen softening (down 2.05%) for asphalt and waterproofing call-offs where tender terms permit.

2. Hedging: Selective USD-linked forward positions on platinum are warranted where Q1 2026 procurement is anticipated. The remaining basket does not require hedging cover at this reading.

3. Energy and Logistics Cost Management: Diesel is stable at AED 2.67/L for November 2025, giving a predictable transport baseline. However, the renewed dry bulk advance (Capesize up 6.96%, BDI up 5.65%, Panamax up 4.17%) reasserts upward pressure on bulk consignments, so retain freight escalation provisions in live tenders despite the Low Risk composite, calibrated to recent dry bulk strength rather than corrected spot. Container softening gives modest relief on manufactured imports.

4. Continuous Monitoring: The principal watch item is the dry bulk freight trajectory and its feed-through into structural steel pricing. Stay on top of LME inventories, Baltic Exchange shipping indices, and AED-EUR/AUD cross rates to catch any sustained escalation early.

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Commercial Guidance

 

1. Structural & Steel Packages

The steel complex firmed only modestly this week, with rebar up 0.63%, HRC up 0.94% and CRC up 0.33%, all small enough that primary structural packages stay commercially balanced. The sharper move sits alongside them in lead, up 1.82%, which carries through to lead-linked and galvanised-adjacent components. In practice the structure itself is steady, and the limited cost risk is concentrated in lead-based and specialist metalwork scopes rather than the main frame.

2. Industrial, Commercial & Infrastructure Projects

The defining pressure this week is freight, not materials. The Baltic Dry rose 5.65%, Capesize 6.96% and Panamax 4.17%, which over the coming six to eight weeks feeds into the landed cost of rebar and other bulk consignments even where mill prices are flat. On the materials side, copper, aluminium and steel firmed only slightly, so trade costs are otherwise contained. The sensible response is to apply cost buffers to shipping-sensitive bulk deliveries specifically, rather than spreading them across all trades.

3. MEP, Finishes & Specialist Imports

The metals tied to MEP turned up this week, with copper gaining 1.74% and platinum 3.20%, so the easy savings on copper-linked cable, busbar and specialist equipment are closing and forward cover is the better posture where exposure is significant. The clearer opportunity is on the softening side: bitumen eased 2.05% and polyvinyl 0.55%, opening a short window to secure waterproofing, drainage and pipework packages at improved rates before they steady.

Procurement Strategy

The strategy this week inverts last week's. Where the basket was broadly easing before, the firmness has rotated into metals, so the targeted move is to lock the still-falling inputs now (bitumen, polyvinyl) and take forward cover on the firming metals where exposure warrants it (platinum, lead, copper). The remainder of the basket stays on active monitoring, since individual moves are mild, but bulk freight should be watched closely given its lagged feed-through into structural pricing.

Overall Commercial Position

Cost risk remains controlled and execution-driven. The upward pressure is narrow, concentrated in selected metals and in bulk freight, while the wider basket is broadly steady and procurement conditions stay normal. With the SCI firming to 101.75 (up 0.36%) and holding 1.75% above the September baseline, and a Low Risk SPSI reading of 1.00, structural and commodity-linked inputs remain manageable, supporting a measured, strategy-led procurement approach rather than any broad budget revision.

Important Disclaimer

The Stonehaven Cost Index (SCI) is for general information only and is not a commitment, guarantee, or offer to contract at any price. The index is based on publicly available commodity data and our internal market view as of 13 November 2025. Actual project costs depend on the specific scope, how you procure, and what's agreed commercially.

Stonehaven Project Management Services LLC accepts no liability for any loss caused by relying on this document without proper project-specific advice. The index shows general market movement based on weighted construction inputs.

FAQ's

1. What is the Stonehaven Construction Cost Index and how is it calculated?

The Stonehaven Cost Index (SCI) tracks weekly price movements across key construction materials, freight indices, and currency pairs relevant to the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Data is collected every week and reviewed by Stonehaven's cost management team before publication. The index is indicative and does not constitute a tender price or contractual valuation.

2. What affects construction material prices in the Middle East?

Several factors influence construction material prices in the Middle East, including global commodity markets, shipping costs, fuel prices and currency movements. Materials like steel, copper and bitumen are particularly sensitive to international demand and logistics conditions, which directly impact construction cost trends in the GCC.

3. How often do construction material prices change?

Construction material prices can change daily depending on global market conditions. Factors such as commodity prices, shipping costs and fuel rates influence short-term movements, which is why tracking weekly construction material price updates is important for sensitive cost planning.

4. How is the Stonehaven Construction Cost Index prepared?

The construction cost index is prepared using weekly data collection across key materials, currencies and freight rates. Cost managers monitor these movements to reflect current conditions. This is then reviewed by the commercial management alongside foreign exchange and logistics trends, which influence construction pricing across the GCC before presenting to our readers.

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