20 November 2025

This Week’s Cost Intelligence

 

Metal prices fell across the board this week, pulling the index back to 101.18. That is a drop of 0.56%, but the index still sits 1.18% above where it started in September. The fall was not even. Platinum, Nickel, Lead and the other base metals all dropped, while steel coil went the other way and jumped 6.55%, the biggest single move of the week. That rise is what kept the overall fall small.

 

For any work that uses a lot of metal, the lower prices are a real saving. Platinum led the fall at 4.64%, followed by Nickel at 3.38%, Polyvinyl at 3.31% and Lead at 3.14%. Aluminium, Copper and Zinc each came off by around 1% to 2.5%. So structural, electrical and mechanical packages that were priced a week ago are now above today’s rates, and there is a short window to re-price them before metals settle again. Steel is the exception: coil has jumped and rebar is up 0.34%, so for steelwork orders it is safer to plan for firm prices rather than wait for a fall.

 

The pressure this week is in shipping, not at the mill. Freight costs rose again, with the Baltic Dry up 9.29% to 2,270 and the Capesize up 16.41% to 3,647, so the cost of getting bulk goods to site is where the strain shows. Currency helps a little the other way. The Dirham strengthened against the Euro, Pound, Yen, Australian Dollar and Singapore Dollar, most of all against the Yen at 1.45% and the Australian Dollar at 0.70%, and barely moved against the Yuan and Rupee. That gives a small saving on goods bought from Europe, the UK, Japan and Australia this week.

 

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Diesel – Mild Uptrend (▲) Forecast:

 

Diesel is tracking a mild uptrend, forecast to hold stable to slightly higher in the region of 0% to +2%. Freight, logistics and steady regional construction activity continue to support demand at current levels.

 

Watch: China industrial output, refining margins, USD strength and shipping and transport PMI. For project teams, diesel feeds directly into plant, haulage and generator running costs, so allow for firm rather than falling fuel pricing when budgeting site logistics over the coming weeks.

Steel (LME/SHFE) – Stable to Slight Uptrend (→/▲) Forecast:

 

Steel is forecast flat to +1%, with global softness offset by regional GCC project demand. The signal this week is the 6.55% jump in Hot-Rolled Coil, which points to firmer sentiment building across the flat-products complex even as rebar holds broadly steady.

 

Watch: iron ore and coking coal costs, China export levels and GCC project awards. With coil already moving, secure forward cover on fabricated steel, decking and secondary steelwork in live tenders rather than pricing on spot alone.

 

Cement – Regional Stability (→) Forecast:

 

Cement remains regionally stable at 0%, holding at AED 255 per tonne with Ready-Mix C40/50 at AED 272 per cubic metre. Pricing is set by local market dynamics rather than global commodity trends, which keeps the concrete cost base predictable.

 

Watch: the GCC project pipeline, fuel and energy costs, clinker capacity and transport and logistics costs. The stable outlook supports firm budgeting on concrete-intensive packages, though sustained freight strength is the main factor that could disturb it.

 

Our Commercial Interpretation

 

This week the basket pulls in three directions at once, and the budgeting response differs for each.

First, the non-ferrous metals have corrected together, platinum, nickel, lead, copper and aluminium all lower, which quietly cheapens structural, electrical and mechanical packages priced even a few days ago; teams with live exposure there should take forward cover while the window is open.

Second, steel breaks the other way, with Hot-Rolled Coil up 6.55%, so fabrication and sheet-steel scopes warrant firm pricing and no waiting for a dip. Third, the real pressure is offshore, not at the mill: the Baltic Dry and Capesize both climbed sharply again, so the saving on imported metal can be eaten by shipping unless freight is costed into the landed figure. None of this calls for a blanket inflation adjustment. The index barely moved on the week; what moved is the mix, and the right answer is scope-by-scope positioning rather than a single number applied across the board.

 

Platinum in Focus This Week

 

Platinum is the standout move this week, but in the opposite direction to last week. It fell 4.64% to USD 1,506.20 per troy ounce, the single biggest drop in the basket. That unwinds part of its recent run, though it is still about 5.81% above the September baseline, so it sits mid-pack over the longer view rather than out in front. The pullback is mostly profit-taking against a firmer US dollar and slightly weaker car-catalyst demand; the underlying South African supply tightness has not gone away.

 

Why It Matters on a GCC Site

 

Platinum is a specialist metal, not a bulk one, so it shows up in a handful of high-spec places rather than across the whole job. On a large GCC development it mainly lands in four areas, and each carries a cost link back to the spot price:

 

Emission systems on site plant. Diesel generators, concrete pumps and tower cranes have to meet UAE and KSA emission rules, and platinum-group catalysts sit inside those compliant exhausts. The cost feeds through into plant hire rates.

 

High-spec MEP instruments. Platinum-tipped thermocouples, temperature detectors and sensor arrays go into pharmaceutical, food-processing and advanced manufacturing fit-outs, and into district cooling plant rooms.

 

Labs and cleanrooms. Crucibles, electrodes and contact materials appear in lab benching, fume extraction and cleanroom HVAC on life-sciences and semiconductor-adjacent projects.

 

Specialist waterproofing. Platinum catalysts activate certain high-performance silicone and polyurethane systems used on green roofs, podium decks and water-retaining structures.

 

What to Do About It

 

Because the price has dipped rather than climbed, this is a buying window, not a cost warning. The sensible steps are straightforward:

 

Price any platinum-bearing MEP packages, sensors and instrumentation against the lower spot now, and bring forward call-offs where Q1 2026 delivery is expected and the supplier will hold the rate. Do the same on platinum-catalysed waterproofing for podium decks and water-retaining structures, where there is a short window before any rebound. And given supply is still tight, treat this as a tactical dip rather than a lasting fall, so taking forward cover on confirmed platinum scopes at the corrected level remains the prudent call.

 

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Stonehaven Analysis 

 

Good news for buyers this week: the Dirham got a little stronger against almost every major currency. The biggest move was against the Japanese Yen, where the Dirham gained 1.45%. It also firmed 0.70% against the Australian Dollar, 0.51% against the Pound, 0.45% against the Euro and 0.32% against the Singapore Dollar. It slipped only a touch against the Indian Rupee, by 0.13%, and was flat against the Chinese Yuan. The US Dollar peg did not move.

A stronger Dirham simply means your money buys more abroad. So anything priced in Yen, Australian Dollars, Pounds, Euros or Singapore Dollars is a fraction cheaper to import this week. The moves are small, but they all lean the same helpful way, which is the opposite of last week.

Impact on Construction Costs

 

1. Imported Materials

Facade systems, MEP equipment and structural steel bought from Europe, the UK, Australia or Japan all land a little cheaper this week, because the Dirham buys more of those currencies. The only exception is Indian-sourced items, which are marginally dearer, while Chinese-sourced goods are unchanged. Across the whole basket the effect is a small saving, weighted towards European, UK, Australian and Japanese supply.

2. Currency Risk

These are small swings driven by global interest-rate expectations, and they can reverse next week just as easily. The sensible approach is not to rewrite any budgets on the back of it, but to use the cheaper rate where you can, by confirming pricing now on long-lead European, UK and Japanese packages while the Dirham is on the stronger side.

Overall Market Position

In short, the currency picture is mildly helpful this week rather than neutral, with the Dirham firmer almost across the board. It is a small tailwind on imports, not a reason to change your numbers:

• Materials: small saving on European, UK, Australian, Japanese and Singapore imports; very slight rise on Indian sourcing; Chinese flat

• Overall: a light tailwind, with the Dirham stronger against nearly all majors and the Dollar peg holding

Stonehaven Procurement Strategy Index (SPSI)

 

The SPSI provides a simple view of current procurement risk in the construction market, based on three key factors:

• Market Volatility (MVEI) – how much material prices are moving

• Import & Currency Exposure (ICEI) – how much currency changes affect what you import

• Energy & Logistics (ELEI) – how much fuel and freight costs are pushing things up

Each one scores 1 to 4, where 1 means stable and 4 means high risk. The overall SPSI uses the same scale:

• Below 1.5: Low risk – market stable, very little price movement

• 1.5 to 2.25: Mild risk – small price moves, keep an eye on it

• 2.25 to 3.25: Moderate risk – clear market movement, take targeted action

• Above 3.25: High risk – the market is shaky, review your buying right away

Current Position (20 Nov): SPSI = 1.70 (Mild Risk)

• MVEI = 2 → mild material price volatility. The basket is split this week: Hot-Rolled Coil jumped 6.55% while the non-ferrous metals corrected together – platinum down 4.64%, nickel down 3.38%, polyvinyl down 3.31%, lead down 3.14% and aluminium down 2.31% – so there is real movement, but it offsets rather than running one way

• ICEI = 1 → low import and currency exposure. The AED and SAR firmed against JPY (down 1.45%), AUD (down 0.70%), GBP (down 0.51%), EUR (down 0.45%) and SGD (down 0.32%), easing only marginally against INR and holding flat against CNY, with the USD peg stable – a favourable backdrop for imports

• ELEI = 2 → mild energy and logistics exposure. The dry bulk segment advanced sharply, with the Baltic Dry up 9.29%, Capesize up 16.41% and Panamax up 0.79%, only partly offset by a softer container index (down 2.66%) and diesel stable at AED 2.67/L

Methodology of SPSI Calculation:

 

The SPSI combines three sub-indices into a single weighted score: Market Volatility Exposure (MVEI) at 45%, Import & Currency Exposure (ICEI) at 30%, and Energy & Logistics Exposure (ELEI) at 25%.

The 45/30/25 split reflects how construction costs are built and how material price moves drive the largest week-on-week shifts, currency exposure on imports comes second, and freight and energy costs third.

This week's calculation: (MVEI 2 × 0.45) + (ICEI 1 × 0.30) + (ELEI 2 × 0.25) = 1.70 (Mild Risk).

Interpretation:

 

The market sits in the mild risk band this week. Material prices are moving more than they have recently, but the moves cancel out a sharp rise in steel coil against a broad fall in non-ferrous metals rather than building into broad stress. Currency exposure is favourable, with the Dirham firmer against nearly all majors, and the main pressure is freight, where the dry bulk segment has climbed sharply even as container rates ease.

The reading is steady at 1.70 for a third straight week. The driver to watch is freight: if the dry bulk advance keeps feeding through, the Energy & Logistics score could push the composite higher next cycle. Keep routine checks going on LME inventories, the Baltic shipping indices and AED cross rates so you spot any sustained escalation early.

Procurement Recommendation

 

1. Material Procurement: The Mild Risk composite supports a broadly normal posture with selective action. Use the non-ferrous correction as a buying window on specialist MEP, stainless and drainage scopes – platinum (down 4.64%), nickel (down 3.38%) and lead (down 3.14%) are all cheaper than a week ago. Treat steel the other way: Hot-Rolled Coil rose 6.55%, so secure forward cover on fabricated steel, decking and secondary steelwork rather than waiting for a dip.

2. Hedging: Selective USD-linked forward positions on platinum-bearing scopes remain warranted where Q1 2026 procurement is anticipated, locking the corrected level. The remaining basket does not require hedging cover at this reading.

3. Energy and Logistics Cost Management: Diesel is stable at AED 2.67/L for November 2025, giving a predictable transport baseline. The sharp dry bulk advance (Capesize up 16.41%, BDI up 9.29%, Panamax up 0.79%) is the main pressure point, so retain freight escalation provisions in live tenders calibrated to the 3-month Capesize average of around 3,001 points rather than corrected spot. Softer container rates (down 2.66%) give modest relief on manufactured imports.

4. Continuous Monitoring: The principal watch item is the dry bulk freight trajectory and its feed-through into structural steel pricing. Stay on top of LME inventories, Baltic Exchange shipping indices, and AED-EUR/AUD cross rates to catch any sustained escalation early.

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Commercial Guidance

 

1. Structural & Steel Packages

Steel is the one part of the basket pushing up this week. Hot-Rolled Coil jumped 6.55%, while rebar edged up just 0.34% and CRC eased 0.28%, so the pressure is concentrated in flat-products rather than the main reinforcement frame. Primary structural packages stay broadly balanced, but anyone with fabricated steel, decking or sheet-steel content should treat coil pricing as firm and secure forward cover rather than waiting for it to come back.

2. Industrial, Commercial & Infrastructure Projects

The defining pressure this week is freight, not materials. The Baltic Dry rose 9.29%, Capesize 16.41% and Panamax 0.79%, which over the coming four to eight weeks feeds into the landed cost of rebar and other bulk consignments even where mill prices are flat. On the materials side the non-ferrous metals softened, so trade costs there are easing. The sensible response is to apply cost buffers to shipping-sensitive bulk deliveries specifically, calibrated to the dry bulk run rather than spread across all trades.

3. MEP, Finishes & Specialist Imports

The metals tied to MEP fell this week, with copper down 1.71%, platinum down 4.64% and nickel down 3.38%, so there is a short buying window on copper-linked cable, busbar and specialist equipment before the correction reverses. Bitumen ran the other way, firming 1.41%, which trims the recent easing on waterproofing and asphalt scopes, while polyvinyl fell a further 3.31%, keeping pipework and conduit packages attractive to lock in now.

Procurement Strategy

The strategy this week inverts last week's. Where the firmness sat in metals before, it has rotated into steel coil, so the targeted move is to take forward cover on Hot-Rolled Coil and fabricated steel scopes, and use the non-ferrous correction (platinum, nickel, copper, lead, aluminium) as a short call-off window on specialist MEP, stainless and drainage packages. The remainder of the basket stays on active monitoring, with bulk freight the item to watch given its lagged feed-through into structural pricing.

Overall Commercial Position

Cost risk remains controlled and execution-driven. The upward pressure is narrow, concentrated in steel coil and in bulk freight, while the wider basket is broadly steady to softer and procurement conditions stay normal. With the SCI easing to 101.18 (down 0.56%) but holding 1.18% above the September baseline, and a Mild Risk SPSI reading of 1.70, structural and commodity-linked inputs remain manageable, supporting a measured, strategy-led procurement approach rather than any broad budget revision.

Important Disclaimer

The Stonehaven Cost Index (SCI) is for general information only and is not a commitment, guarantee, or offer to contract at any price. The index is based on publicly available commodity data and our internal market view as of 20 November 2025. Actual project costs depend on the specific scope, how you procure, and what's agreed commercially.

Stonehaven Project Management Services LLC accepts no liability for any loss caused by relying on this document without proper project-specific advice. The index shows general market movement based on weighted construction inputs.

FAQ's

1. What is the Stonehaven Construction Cost Index and how is it calculated?

The Stonehaven Cost Index (SCI) tracks weekly price movements across key construction materials, freight indices, and currency pairs relevant to the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Data is collected every week and reviewed by Stonehaven's cost management team before publication. The index is indicative and does not constitute a tender price or contractual valuation.

2. What affects construction material prices in the Middle East?

Several factors influence construction material prices in the Middle East, including global commodity markets, shipping costs, fuel prices and currency movements. Materials like steel, copper and bitumen are particularly sensitive to international demand and logistics conditions, which directly impact construction cost trends in the GCC.

3. How often do construction material prices change?

Construction material prices can change daily depending on global market conditions. Factors such as commodity prices, shipping costs and fuel rates influence short-term movements, which is why tracking weekly construction material price updates is important for sensitive cost planning.

4. How is the Stonehaven Construction Cost Index prepared?

The construction cost index is prepared using weekly data collection across key materials, currencies and freight rates. Cost managers monitor these movements to reflect current conditions. This is then reviewed by the commercial management alongside foreign exchange and logistics trends, which influence construction pricing across the GCC before presenting to our readers.

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